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Prof.
Andrzej Brodziak
Head
of the Department of Internal Diseases
of
the Faculty of Public Health
of
the Silesian Medical University
ul.
Żeromskiego 7
41
–902 Bytom
Poland
http://salve.slam.katowice.pl/eng5klinchw.html
Head
of the Institute of Nursing
of
the State College of Nysa
http://www.pzsz.nysa.pl
tel./fax
( 48 32 ) 2812122
e-mail
andrzejbrodziak@wp.pl
anbro@interia.pl
Returning for a while for the task
of " computer aided
risk management of the trend to
depopulation ", I would
like to remark, that indeed
there are some role of ' computer centers' , but only
in very primary, initial
phase of activities. Namely the
centers of demography should compute some demographic parameters. Probably some
participants of the NoE, who are
working in other kind of
institutions could be in contact
with 'demographic centers ', and control gathering of data. Of course the ' source materials ' for relevant demographic data are so called
' certificates of death ' and '
certificate of birth '.
There
are appropriate offices, in any
European country, which gather and realize processing
of these
kind of data. In Poland the
appropriate institution it is so
called GUS - Glowny Urzad Statystyczny ( http:// http://www.stat.gov.pl/
, http://www.stat.gov.pl/english/index.htm
)
Many
relevant demographic data can be
found in Internet. It is thru however that not all data necessary for the
monitoring of the birth rate is accessible easily.
Probably one of activities
in the realm of JPA should consist
on the creation of efficient net of website presenting permanently the parameters like ' rate of birth '.
As
I mentioned already many times, second, more essential information
necessary to monitor ' risk of depopulation ' has the character of the
estimations ( evaluations ) of
cultural, patterns, believes
and economic ways of the organization of societies. It must be done be
highly competent psychologists,
sociologists, mass - media analysts. The observed changes of attitudes
can be illustrated by some schemes, drawings and numbers, finally
performed by computers, but " people should be here ...
receptors of the monitoring system
" . Perceptiveness, intelligence and realization of the geol of the monitoring
would be here essential.
One part of those " people as receptors of the monitoring system
tuned for the problem of depopulation " probably should be teachers in high
schools, universities, who have opportunity to discuss with young women and men.
It is essential to have orientation in real state of mind of contemporary
young people. Additionally, of course, some
pool investigations performed
by means of typical
sociological methodology ( like gathering of questionnaire
should be done periodically.
The analysis of attitudes and believes of young people
would be the trial of the estimation of the result of
cultural influences ... but probably yet more important
is the monitoring of the real, actual influences of cultural (
mass-media, journals, novels ), religious, scientific and common talking
massages. Again " people as
receptors of the monitoring system tuned for the problem of depopulation "
should simply observe what the mass media emit !!! It should be next analyzed
and presented ... yes but to ... whom ...
Of course to that people, who would like to reverse the deteriorating
situation .
So
the most essential factor of the " risk management of depopulation "
are not computers but mass - media, but which would be programmed
by a concrete intention.
This intention should
encompasses of course
problems ( questions ) related to the appropriate time for retirement ,
unemployment, immigration and
yet some others. People who would
be aware of precise content of such
intention, should have own sources of expression of their intention. As the fist
step of the JPA activities the
European website similar to
American ' Population action website ' [http://www.populationaction.org/ ] should
be implemented.
Somebody should plan, design this
kind of intention,... but by this way we will return to the concept of the ' particular campaign '
( even planed by a political
movement ), what was , as you know , disapproved by the RTD Commission.
As I mentioned, I am
not able to present reasonable plan of endeavors,
based on other assumptions, because
I don't believe in other successful
approach in this domain. Moreover, I
am not interested in unsuccessful approaches.
It is however possible, in general, that somebody else , an independent person will read our
both ' outline proposals ' : DEPOPULATION-EUROPE
and " Well being and
health of older people ..." and will prepare a
formulation of JPA for
the topic " Ageing: the Demographic Challenge " .. in
quite another spirit .. more appropriate for the RTD Commission.
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