| Network
of Excellence |
CARiMan |
The
Internet Portal for Computer Aided Risk Management |
Responsible:
ITC
Assistance: PRO, all
partners
Our environment is going
through rapid changes, and its affects are becoming more and more evident. Sea
surface temperatures are increasing in the North-Atlantic, it is known that
temperature changes affect currents; it also affects some species and has
already show migration and extinction of specific species from large areas. The
relationship between species can be very complex and even impossible to
formulate mathematically. A method is needed to be able to foresee as reliably
as possible, the potential risk to harvested species of the oceans in a rapidly
changing environment. A method that considers known metrics of species like
abundance, mortality rate, sexual maturity age, recruitment weight at age,
biomass, catch information etc. and known environmental measurements like
temperature, Salinity, Primary production, Zooplankton distribution, Current
indexes etc. The method also has to include information from research of the
species.
It
is self-evident, that we only know a small portion of what happens in the oceans
ecosystem, but do we know enough to build a model that can predict with
reasonably accuracy?
The
objective of this JPA is to perform a feasibility study to investigate the
possibility of creating a mathematical marine ecosystem, to be used to evaluate
environment risk and risk to harvested marine species. The purpose is to enable
scientists to assess risk to harvested species by foreseeable environment
changes, creating scenarios by which the scientist can change environment
variables within limits and see its outcome with reasonable accuracy.